An intense discussion is now going on at the International Seabed Authority (ISA), starting in March 2024, and proceeding up to August, for its various instances, committees, and general assembly.The most critical point concerns the call for licenses, which are being advanced by several commercial mining entities, to explore deep sea grounds, seeking rare minerals highly in demand,  fueling the energy and green transitions worldwide.Clean energy technologies require more materials, such as copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, aluminum, and rare earth elements, than fossil fuel-based technologies. Demand for critical minerals could surge 450% by 2050 to meet Paris Agreement climate goals[1]. The deep sea, particularly in the form of polymetallic nodules (PMNs), contains significant cobalt resources. Estimates suggest that by 2035, deep-sea mining of PMNs could produce 61,200 tons of cobalt per year, which could account for up to 50% of current annual global cobalt demand[2].

For the first time, ISA is considering the revision  of deep-sea mineral exploitation regulations [3]. Commercial deep-sea mining has attracted increased attention, particularly owing  to potential oceanic challenges, including pollution, overfishing, biodiversity, and habitat loss, acidification, rising water temperatures, and climate change. Those favoring commercial mining highlight the need for a supply of materials necessary for global energy transition. Recent meetings in Kingston, Jamaica, have focused on revising the draft regulations for deep-sea mineral exploitation. While some progress has been made, several areas of disagreement remain, particularly regarding environmental protections and the speed of issuing commercial permits. The ISA is aiming to finalize the new regulations by July 2025, but there are concerns that this deadline may not be met.

On the commercial side, The Metals Company (TMC), Canada, anticipates submitting an application for a mining exploitation license in 2024, potentially starting mining operations in 2025, even before the regulations are fully in place. While ISA has not granted any commercial licenses for deep-sea mining, some countries are moving forward independently. Norway already passed a bill in January 2024, which authorizes prospecting for deep-sea minerals, accelerating the hunt for the precious metals that are in high demand for green technologies. Environmental scientists have warned  such oceanic exploitation could be devastating for marine life. The outlook concerns Norwegian waters, nevertheless, agreements on mining in international waters could also be reached this year.

Several countries, including France, Germany, and Portugal, have now called for a moratorium or temporary suspension on deep-sea mining to allow for more scientific study of the environmental impacts. Over 20 countries have expressed opposition to  fast track deep-sea mining licenses[4].

However, land mining for rare materials is no less controversial. There are considerable concerns about the environmental and ethical issues associated with current land-based cobalt mining practices, including those conducted in countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

The green and energy transition seems to harm itself, when the environmental costs of the necessary technologies emerge in their entirety, shouldering the economic and social costs alone. While the world has already embarked on risky strategies –  such as electrical mobility – it is now perhaps becoming more and more evident that the remedy might in fact be worse than the evil.

Even so electrical mobility is not the only pertinent issue. The electronic society is increasingly demanding more energy. The supercomputers needed for extensive artificial intelligence require an enormous amount of energy. Computational power for sustaining AI’s rise is doubling every 100 days. An x10 improvement in AI efficiency requires computational power demand up to 10,000 times. The annual growth rate in energy required to run AI ranges from 26% to 36%. By 2028, AI could be using more power than Iceland used in 2021[5]. The AI lifecycle impacts the environment at a value of  20% during the training phase, and 80%  during the inference phase (the user side of AI). As AI gains traction across diverse sectors, the need for inference and its environmental footprint will quickly escalate.

AI is not alone in demanding energy: the large servers working to generate and move electronic money worldwide are similar associates. The global communication network, with its extensive features (video and voice real-time communication), requires large servers and increased energy flows as well. As an additional concern, these machines are generating  vast quantities of heat, which must be dissipated.

At their core, the 17 SDGs of the U.N. 2030 Agenda will rest on three core SDG pillars, which we might consider to be the engine of all types of development, including environmental development: (SDG 7) energy, (SDG 8) jobs, and (SDG 9) industrial innovation. However, these expectations may simply not be sustainable, as they often conflict with the environmental and conservation SDGs: in fact, they are UDG (Unsustainable Development Goals).

We are witnesses to a total, irreconcilable, contradiction: not only do the development goals conflict with environmental ones. The environmental goals also conflict with the environmental goals in themselves. The energy increase is clearly demanded by the green transition. Yet the green policies require a general degrowth. What does this conundrum mean?

The high lifestyle promised by the electronic society will only be available to a few people, provided that civilization does not collapse beforehand. On Earth, for 8 billion people, and counting, the protective blanket will become more and more shorter: if it covers the shoulders, the feet will remain uncovered.

Alternatively, the economics of space settlement and further exploration, may make a very high lifestyle generally available to all. To offer a few examples, rare materials can also be found on the Moon and in asteroids, without wasting the precious life of the Earth’s seas. Vast energy sources may be generated in space directly from the Sun, in order to feed space infrastructures, habitats, supercomputers, and big data servers operating in orbit and on the Moon. In outer space or the lunar craters that the sun never reaches,  large machines may readily dissipate their heat, and that heat can also be reused to warm habitats.

We have to look beyond limited horizons for the solution to the environmental, economic, and social conundrum. Civilian Space Development can balance the equations for sustainability and ensure a durable, productive and long term future for humanity.

The Space 18^th SDG Coalition – 85 organizations so far – is proposing to add an 18^th Sustainable Development Goal to the U.N. 2030 Agenda, to raise awareness, in the society at large, about the urgency to kick off Civilian Space Development, and the fact that space is the key factor of a sustainable development for all, on Earth and beyond.

[English language editing by Amalie Sinclair]

Join the Space 18^th SDG Coalition! https://spacerenaissance.space/sign-the-18th-sdg/

Join the Space Renaissance! https://spacerenaissance.space/membership/international-membership-registration/

Download a pdf version of this article.

Citations:

[1] https://unctad.org/news/critical-minerals-boom-global-energy-shift-brings-opportunities-and-risks-developing-countries

[2] https://easac.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/EASAC_Deep_Sea_Mining_Web_publication_.pdf

[3] https://www.mining-technology.com/features/deep-sea-exploration-rights-under-international-seabed-authority-regulations/

[5] https://carbon-pulse.com/273149/

[5] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/04/how-to-manage-ais-energy-demand-today-tomorrow-and-in-the-future/

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Also see the SRI Position Paper on the Key Critical Issues before 2030.  https://www.amazon.com/position-paper-critical-issues-toward/dp/B0CVVP6NKT/

Join the Space 18^th SDG Coalition https://spacerenaissance.space/sign-the-18th-sdg/

Stay tuned with the campaign for Space 18^th SDG: https://space18thsdg.space/

Join the SRI Crew: https://spacerenaissance.space/membership/international-membership-registration/

Donate some money to SRI: https://spacerenaissance.space/donate-to-space-renaissance/

Watch and subscribe to the Space Renaissance YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/@spacerenaissance

Want to discuss this? Please do it on the SRI Open Forum: https://groups.google.com/g/sri-open-forum/c/4jYMXJIBF_4

* Panel Number 1 covered the Use of Space Resources

Space resources should be primarily used to build infrastructure in space while avoiding new colonialist attitudes. Instead, space resources belong to space communities. Accessing previously untapped space resources will produce an economy of abundance for all on Earth. The U.N. should immediately promote the idea that the military industry should pivot from manufacturing means of destruction to instead manufacturing space infrastructure, such as rotating settlements in orbit and at Lagrange points.

Lacking a general agreement on space resources and bootstrapping of the cislunar economy, the U.N. should consider the Artemis Accords and the International Lunar Research Station as best practices for fair competition and collaboration.

* Panel Number 2 covered Orbital Debris

Orbital debris represents an extremely serious threat to space navigation and deserves an extremely high priority focus. COPUOUS should support the industry in finding solutions. Debris removal is not just a moral duty, but simultaneously a major business opportunity. The many thousands of tons in orbit hold great value for space industrialization. Therefore, space law should urgently allow the capture, salvage, reuse, or parking of decommissioned satellites, rocket stages, and other large space wreckage. These may profitably produce propellant or reused infrastructure components. Maritime law provides a useful analog.

Member states should encourage their manufacturers to equip satellites for end-of-life de-orbiting, encourage their space entrepreneurs to develop innovative debris removal technologies, via private-public funding partnerships, encourage relevant academic research, and support best practices in debris management and reuse.

Finally, and most importantly, all anti-satellite weapons tests should be banned by the U.N.

* Panel Number 3 covered Space Law

The Outer Space Treaty should be modernized with provisions for private-sector participation. Successful elements from other treaties, like the Law of the Sea, should guide space resource utilization. We should establish clear, robust legal frameworks to protect intellectual and industrial property rights in space. Access to space should be democratized, lowering barriers to entry, and fostering international collaboration.

All stakeholders, and not only states, should participate in space law development. Access to resources should be free, without exclusion zones. Finally, the OST should be extended to disarmament, global monitoring, and the prevention of space militarization. In principle, space should be declared a weapons-free zone.

* Panel Number 4 covered Sustainable Benefits 4 All Peoples of Earth

Expanding civilization into outer space represents humanity’s natural evolution. Historically, we have never been confined to a single geographical location. As Earth now reaches her carrying capacity, living and working in the solar system is essential for continued growth.

Lessons learned off-Earth, such as total recycling, efficient food production, and eco-sustainable habitats, will immeasurably benefit life on planet Earth, particularly for those suffering from poverty. Tangible space benefits should be more publicly promoted, including satellite communication, which has accelerated, for example, education and health care for those remote and underserved. We must develop a holistic space sustainability framework to unite social, environmental, and economic factors.

Civilian Space Development (CSD) includes the cislunar economy, asteroid mining, establishing space communities, and space industrialization, providing a new industrial value chain and jobs to “post-industrial” countries. CSD also helps the development and social growth of all Earth’s peoples, including those in space-emerging and space-aspiring countries.

As the world witnesses a permanent space revolution, space-emerging countries no longer need to endure the long, slow road traveled by pioneers. Non-space-faring countries deserve the same opportunities as pioneer countries. They should not be limited to space technologies supporting agriculture and disaster recovery.  They instead deserve advanced space development, as all have rights to development and social growth (as outlined in the U.N. resolution on the human right to development, 1986). Brilliant minds have birth everywhere. They will not be peasants on Earth forever, and maybe they might be peasants in space!

CDS is a powerful factor for peace, putting resource wars out-of-business.

The Overview Effect remains a powerful icon of a new human community, where no barriers, borders, or boundaries can be seen from orbit or the Moon. Sustainable space operations enhance global connectivity, bridging the digital divide and improving everyone’s quality of life. Satellites track climate change and natural disasters and help resource management to heighten our resiliency.

* Finally, Panel Number 5 covered Sustainable Space Development and Space for Sustainability

At their core, the 17 SDGs rest on three core SDG pillars: (7) energy, (8) jobs, and (9) industry innovation.  However, these are simply not sustainable if confined on Earth, as they conflict with the environmental SDGs: they are UDG, Unsustainable Development Goals!

For example, energy demand increases with production increases, Web use, and AI. Energy and resource demand increases, but green policies require general decrease. What does this conundrum mean? The high lifestyle promised by electronic society will be available only to a few people (if civilization does not crash before).  Space, instead, makes a positive lifestyle available for all.

A massive misunderstanding depicts leaving Earth as unethical. The truth is exactly the opposite. We are not abandoning Earth, we are simply expanding our presence beyond Earth, as an act of love.  Our mother planet is stressed by our technological development.  Large-scale space migration shows her our respect and love, as well as respect and love for humanity.

Space development will generate an immeasurable number of new jobs. “Space for all” means space for the next generations. We therefore must disseminate knowledge of space benefits.

Summarizing the robust consensus of all five panels: we must architecture the future of space. The consequences of extinction events are irreconcilable. Securing new resources secures options for a positive future.  Building and maintaining viable space communities is a microcosm of providing for all life on Earth.

Space should be a weapons-free zone. In a Copernican view, we live in an open world, without limits to growth. No other species can develop technologies to live beyond the biosphere. We, therefore, have great responsibility and should act before 2030, focusing on settlements beyond Earth, instead of wasting energy to wage wars on a single planet. We need a vertical growth strategy, instead of a “horizontal” geopolitical one.

Space development will ignite industrial, technical, social, and cultural development. This will also critically ensure sufficient resources and energy for all of our emerging countries. Orbital debris might be the first factor for space industrialization, and space-based circular economy, but not the last. Let us think outside of geocentric constraints and create a better, bigger, and bolder analytical definition of space resources and products, sustainable extraction, and the upcycling of lunar and asteroid resources. We should also support continued cooperation among all countries, notwithstanding the ongoing wars and subsequent opposition.

In conclusion, the U.N. should include space development as a key sustainability factor for the 2030 Agenda and explicitly mention the work of UNOOSA and COPUOS in all related public communications and outreach.

Renewed global collaboration is imperative between international regulatory bodies, governments, and the private sector for the adoption of shared space assets, ensuring full SDG alignment.

With the potential of sustainable space for increased international peace, security, human rights, and sustainability, Space as the 18th SDG is a must for the benefit of everyone.

Watch the video of the speech on the U.N. TV website: https://webtv.un.org/en/asset/k1w/k1wp8nfhx5?kalturaStartTime=6140

Writing from Vienna, at the COPUOS Legal Subcommittee 63^rd session, 15-26 April 2024.

Three speeches, so far, were released by members of our Space 18^th SDG Coalition: a technical presentation, by Alfred Anzaldua, on behalf of NSS, and two oral speeches, by Adriano V. Autino (SRI), and Frederick Jenet (NSS).

• Alfred Anzaldua, 19 April “Organizing internationally to defeat an enemy of Long Term Sustainability: waste accumulation from careless industrial practices”,  10 minutes technical presentation
• Adriano V. Autino, on behalf of SRI, 22 April, 5 minutes oral speech
• Frederick Jenet, on behalf of NSS, 22 April, 5 minutes oral speech

Autino and Jenet gave their 5 minutes speeches the 22 of April, in a session in which several observer NGOs gave their speeches as well. Namely For All MoonKind (Marlène Losier), the MoonVillage Association (Giuseppe Reibaldi), and others. All the videos are available here.

A very interesting meeting was held this morning by the Romanian delegation, for the creation of an Action Team on Lunar Activities Consultation (ATLAC). Though very promising, the meeting was just the kick-off of a brainstorming period, going to define some guidelines, an agenda, and criteria for joining and submitting papers and proposals.

We’ll be here until the end of the session, Friday 26. We’ll probably share a report on the whole thing after the end.

If you like to comment or discuss this post, please do it on the SRI Open Forum:
https://groups.google.com/g/sri-open-forum (ask to be added if you’re not a member yet).

Ad Astra!

Adriano V. Autino (SRI),
Werner Grandl (SRI),
Alfred Anzaldua (NSS and SRI)